A Return to Market Stability
The real estate market is finally finding its footing. After years of “frozen” inventory and high interest rates, 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the “Great Housing Reset.” For military families, this means a shift away from the chaotic bidding wars of the past toward a steadier, more predictable environment.
Experts from Zillow, Realtor.com, and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) largely agree: the extreme volatility of the pandemic era is over. While we are not returning to 3% mortgage rates, the market is moving toward a healthy balance that benefits both buyers and sellers.
Mortgage Rates and the Affordability Pivot
Mortgage rates remain the biggest factor for home buyers. Most major forecasts predict that the 30-year fixed rate will hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026. Fannie Mae projects rates could even dip to 5.9% by the end of the year.
While these rates are higher than the 2020 lows, they are significantly better than the peaks seen in recent years. This “new normal” is encouraging more buyers to re-enter the market. Furthermore, experts predict that wage growth will finally outpace home price increases in 2026. This means that, for the first time in years, the typical American household will find it slightly easier to afford a home.
Inventory Growth and Buyer Power
Inventory levels are finally rising. Realtor.com predicts a nearly 9% increase in active listings for 2026. This marks the third consecutive year of inventory gains. For a military family arriving at a new duty station, this means more choices and less pressure to settle for a sub-par property.
Because there are more homes for sale, buyers have regained their negotiating power. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun notes that well-priced homes will still sell quickly, but buyers are no longer willing to overlook major repairs or pay massive premiums. You can once again ask for home inspections and seller concessions without automatically losing the deal.
New Construction and Builder Incentives
Interestingly, 2026 may be a slow year for new single-family home starts. Zillow predicts this will be the weakest year for new construction since 2019. Builders are focusing on finishing existing projects rather than starting new ones.
To keep inventory moving, however, many builders are offering aggressive incentives. If you are looking at new construction near a base, look for mortgage rate buydowns and closing cost credits. These incentives can effectively lower your monthly payment more than a standard market rate would allow.
The Role of Technology and AI
Technology is changing how we buy and sell homes. By 2026, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will move beyond simple search filters. AI will help manage the entire transaction. It will coordinate tours, facilitate negotiations, and streamline the closing process. This is a massive win for military families conducting long-distance “sight-unseen” purchases during a PCS.
What This Means for Military Families
For the military community, 2026 offers a window of opportunity. With price growth expected to be a modest 1% to 2% nationally, your home equity remains safe, but you aren’t fighting an overheated market.
If you are selling, focus on realistic pricing. The “haves and have-nots” market means that overpriced homes will sit and stagnate. If you are buying, use your VA loan benefits to take advantage of the stabilizing rates. The 2026 market is about “slow and steady” wins. It is a great time to find a home that fits your long-term financial goals.
